Reuters: META Predicts Microsoft Will Offer Linux Software.
META Group predicted that Linux will be used on nearly half of new servers by 2007, up from its current share of 15 to 20 percent, making it difficult for Microsoft to ignore Linux as a platform for its database, Web hosting and e-mail server applications.
“We believe that, beginning in late 2004, Microsoft (and its partners) will begin moving some of its (to-date) proprietary application enablers (e.g., .Net components) to the Linux environment; this will gradually include the major Microsoft back-office products, such as SQL Server, IIS, and Exchange,” META Group said.
In a further shift, META Group said that Microsoft will also re-price or separate its Windows server operating system “so that it can be favorably compared against ‘free’ Linux.”
I’ve written before that .NET is a hedge against Linux, but my thoughts were on the desktop. I predicted that Microsoft would first take a scorched-earth stance on Windows pricing if Desktop Linux ever gained traction.
On the server end, using Mono to bootstrap Exchange and SQL Server for Linux makes sense. These products already have favorable licensing costs compared to competitive offerings, even factoring in the price of Windows 2000 Server. Having a Linux-based offering expands their market reach, allowing Microsoft to sell into companies that prefer Unix for Enterprise solutions, and further reduces the costs compared to Notes and Oracle.
“Losing” Windows Server sales doesn’t hurt Microsoft if they can continue to sell Server software. Win-Win all around.
But IIS would not make the leap to Linux. At the technical level, IIS is tightly bound to the way that Windows works. A straight port to Linux, managed code or not, would perform poorly. Strategically, IIS is only important as a delivery platform for .NET and COM. Given that IIS doesn’t generate any revenue of it’s own, if Microsoft starts offering Linux solutions there is no reason for them not to embrace Apache.
The big question is, how long will it take Microsoft to migrate to managed code?
